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Foreword: Since the beginning of the year, the market is right of home appliance be anxious to emerge in endlessly, main concern comes from at 2 o’clock: Landed influence demand + orgnaization configuration changes direction, it is weather element, custom duty is adjusted next wait, it is the trade data of of all kinds caliber next again. The investment that shuts greatly with suitable 2017 cycle is old is different, the investment 2018 is recommended can appear more constraint really, it is the level that accepts home appliance demand objectively to put delay to enter relatively moderate growth at the same time, it is market participator appears apparently at the same time statified, amending back and forth to the anticipation of the industry上海足浴桑拿会所费上海桑拿龙凤会所用. We had discussed this issue on April 8, “Outstanding achievement does not have anxiety, why to dismiss concern ” ? Today, we still want to express same point of view: 1, the anchorage ability that shows level to look for main area is the most important, 2, join long term and MSCI, overseas investor to receive Er of go into business big a large amount of, the structural change that these things tell us investor still is in continuously, it is more mature that appraise is worth a system to be met only, won’t return overnight before liberating. Had these two consensus, we look again, should be otherwise of main area frame done amend? Can be investment style changed board piece appraise value? What kind of stock should we pick? Core viewpoint: One, the key that main 2018 area dogs is in retail volume, the dot reviews first in 2 quarters when issue us the main area frame 2018: Measurable dimensions grows the profit margin below to promote. 1) sales volume: Suffer the macroscopical element effect such as real estate, sales volume adds fast annulus to compare 2017 put delay, gave empty ice to wash wait for what tall digit grows large category to anticipate; 2) time is periodic: Filling inventory comes 3, April, enter next retail digest period, 4-6 month looks retail, 6-8 month sees weather; 3) category difference: Ice is washed periodic not remarkable, air conditioning / hutch report is more remarkable; 4) profit: Profit is added fast big上海最新油压论坛 probability is fast at income, because main area is in pressure of cost of sale in domestic market to was digested 2017,finished, exit cost pressure is digested in 18H1 likely finish, the product below the growth of mo爱上海 干磨del of choice comfortable metric that the enterprise can happen to coincide this year upgrades; 5) key company: White report bibcock gave annual income 15% the left and right sides, the anticipation of profit 15-20% . So, shipment is added fast not be to dog key, 2 quarters basically follow retail volume namely. Retail volume can keep 2 quarters from beginning to end in 10% above, strategy of 3 quarters company won’t have too big adjustment, also not was necessary to adjust the gain of key company to forecast. If 2 quarters are retail,the quantity enters low a digit, negative even growth, strategy meets 3 quarterly enterprises to be entered immediately likely maintain share level, the pursuit to the微信上去家里服务真假 quantity can override on price promotion. 2, 4-5 month data is favorable, maintain main area frame not to do revise tripartite data: Retail data stabilizes 4-5 month, terminal demand is good 上海宝山哪里有荤场anticipate at market pessimism. End last week, each number of squares of category of main in April home appliance finishs exposure basically according to the library. In light of whole: Main category whol上海闵行虹莘路spae was added compared to the same period in April fast keep stable, and the sale in domestic market of air conditioning 20%+ is a上海洋高端dded fast add fast photograishx爱上海验证交流aph basically also to match with enterprise installation card; In light of cent channel: According to Ao Weiyu上海荤场吧n the net pushs total data, fast become divided is adde北京桑拿会所体验d below the line on the line. Empty in April ice washs the sales volume on the line to be added compared to the same period fast it is respectively + 22%/+15%/+18% , and the sales volume on the line is occupied than amounting to 25% above generally, growth of the high speed on the line is pulled significantly use integral show. And be short of to what enclothe with small line channel on the line break, bring about Zhong Yikang caliber data is fuzzy bigger; In light of brand pattern: Be benefited product + the abidance 普陀浴场水磨of channel bonus ferments, sea Er behaves bright look in each product line, market share上海干磨论坛干上海哪个桑拿会那事磨全套指什么 promotes stead上海水磨全套ily. Key company dogs: 4-5 month bibcock increased terminal the strength of retail sales promotion, partial area weather is torrid at the same time, air conditioning terminal is retail performance is good. We dog the card of air conditioning installation of bibcock of report of 4-5 pale blue is added fast all be in 15-20% or taller, air conditioning shipment is added fast all be in 20% above. Will be about to enter air conditioning to sell busy season in June